Now What? A Look at the Development of Health Exchanges

By Jennifer S. Bard

One of the most common questions I get asked when I talk about health care reform is some version of “how is it actually going to work?” Good question.  So much of the Bill was TBA while its Constitutionality was being tested that only now does it seem as if the both the insurance industry and the government are realizing that it is up to them to make this work.

For example, what, exactly is an Exchange?  There’s surprisingly little information—and all of in the future tense.  For example, the Kaiser Family Foundation website gives this definition: “Exchanges are new organizations that will be set up to create a more organized and competitive market for buying health insurance.” This is how the Government is explaining it.

But there are still a lot of missing pieces.  Who decides the criteria for participation? How will “affordable” be defined? Because the issue isn’t just price—it’s what’s included in that price.   We know that “Exchange” is essentially a web shopping site where people can go to study and compare different health insurance packages.   The difference is that at least some of these packages will be “affordable” and there will always be some kind of “affordable” option for everyone regardless of their current health status.  Beyond that, there are a lot of questions.  Some states are working hard to set up exchanges, others have refused to participate and still others are still in some kind of “planning” or “study” phase.  This map from the Kaiser Foundation gives a 50 state overview.  As the idea of exchanges and the actual implementation of the mandate which will be the mechanism that requires consumers to use these exchanges, there is a growing awareness on the part of the government agencies responsible for running this that it will be a lot of work. For example, this article from Business Week reports concerns expressed by the Commissioner of IRS about how they are actually going to enforce the penalties. There’s already a considerable amount of hiring going in.

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Uninsured Drop, But the Challenges Continue

By Nicole Huberfeld

The Pacific Legal Foundation seems unable to face its defeat before the Court in June.  The PLF has filed a motion seeking leave to amend a complaint on behalf of a small business owner who would have the ACA declared unconstitutional based on the theory that the law was introduced in the Senate, not the House.  Article I section 7 of the Constitution commands that “All bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House….”  This plaintiff, Matt Sissel, originally filed a complaint challenging the constitutionality of the ACA as exceeding Congress’s commerce power; but, because the Court decided that the ACA is constitutional as an exercise of tax authority in part because it raises revenue, the plaintiff seeks to amend his complaint rather than allow it to be dismissed based on the decision in NFIB v. Sebelius.

It seems ironic that this novel filing made news the same day that the Census Bureau reported that the number and the percentage of uninsured Americans dropped for the first time since 2007.  The drop is largely attributed to young adults being permitted to stay on their parents’ insurance policies under new ACA requirements.  While the drop is movement in the right direction, it is hardly a victory given that nearly one in six Americans still lack health insurance coverage and the percentage of Americans on Medicaid has increased due to the ongoing effects of the Great Recession.  Nevertheless, it is a small taste of the positive outcomes that the ACA may produce if the federal government could stop defending the law and instead focus on implementing it.

Though it seems unlikely that lower federal courts will be interested in the obscure constitutional provision PLF relies on, as I have said before, the administration needs to learn from the nonchalance with which it initally treated challenges to the ACA.  The novelty or obscurity of the challenger’s theory does not correllate to failure with the Roberts Court, which has proven itself willing to accept new legal theories and willing to ignore or modify precedent.

[cross-posted from HealthLawProf Blog]

Upcoming Event – Health Care Reform: A View from Both Sides, 9/25/12

Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Austin Hall, Classroom 111
Harvard Law School
12-1:30PM

If you’re going to be in Cambridge next week, please join us for a special off-the-record debate on American health care reform, moderated by the Petrie-Flom Center’s Founding Faculty Director, Einer Elhauge.  John McDonough, official surrogate of the Obama campaign and director of the Center for Public Health Leadership at the Harvard School of Public Health, and Oren Cass, domestic policy director for the Romney campaign, will discuss what each candidate would mean for the future of US health policy.

This event is free and open to the public.  No reporting will be permitted without the express permission of the speakers. Lunch and refreshments will be served.

Co-sponsored by the Petrie-Flom Center, HLS Democrats, HLS Republicans, and HLS American Constitution Society.

MA Health Reform and Medical Debt – Getting the Facts Straight

by Rebecca Haffajee 

Earlier this week, the Boston Globe reported that medical debt is still a problem in Massachusetts, with scant change since the implementation of health reform legislation in 2006. Specifically, the article reports that of approximately 3,000 adults surveyed in 2010, 17.5% had trouble paying medical bills in the past year and 20% were carrying medical debt and paying it over time, statistically insignificant changes since 2006. The source of this finding is the Massachusetts Health Reform Survey (MHRS) funded by Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA Foundation, whose latest results published in January 2012 track annual trends from 2006 – 2010. The Globe story seems to suggest that in the absence of reductions in medical debt, health reform is failing to achieve one of its goals. The survey findings, however, don’t present a story of causal inference; they (at best) identify a loose association.

Just to recap some basics of MA health reform: the law required most residents to obtain insurance. It established Commonwealth Care through the Health Connector – an exchange of sorts – so that low income residents not eligible for Medicaid could qualify for a subsidized plan.  The Connector also offers Commonwealth Choice non-subsidized plans for individuals and employers.  Since passage of the law, insurance coverage among MA residents has increased from 94% to 98%.

The MHRS study design consists of 1 “pre” measurement, or the survey fielded in 2006 just before reform implementation, and 4 “post” measurements (2007-2010).  This design fails to provide a reliable counterfactual that reveals what would have happened in the absence of the health reform “treatment”.  A slightly better design would have administered survey questions for many years before health reform implementation. But even this design would be considered somewhat weak for causal inference given the presence of other factors that could have happened concurrently with the policy change that could explain outcomes. For instance, the recession could dramatically impact how much medical debt is incurred or not paid off, even with health insurance — especially with the proliferation of high deductible health plans in recent years.

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The Supply of American Doctors

Following up on his post on Australia, Al Roth notes that American medicine is a market with tightly restricted entry, at all levels. Proposed legislation offers a glimpse: Bill Would Create More Medical-Residency Slots, Potentially Easing Physician Shortage

Legislation introduced in Congress on Monday would expand the number of Medicare-sponsored training slots for new doctors by 15,000, a step that two medical-education groups said would go a long way toward easing a projected shortage of physicians. The bill, the Physician Shortage Reduction and Graduate Medical Education Accountability and Transparency Act (HR 6352), is sponsored by Rep. Aaron Schock, an Illinois Republican, and Rep. Allyson Schwartz, a Pennsylvania Democrat. Medical schools have been expanding their enrollments and new schools have been opening up as concerns have grown about a shortage that could reach more than 90,000 physicians by 2020, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges. Those worries have intensified with passage of the Affordable Care Act, which will greatly increase the number of people seeking medical care by providing insurance coverage to 32 million more people. But while more students are making their way through the medical-school pipeline, they’re likely to run into bottlenecks because of a cap on the number of Medicare-supported residency training slots that Congress imposed in 1997.

[cross-posted on Market Design]

Conference Announcement: Connected Health Symposium 2012

We got an email today announcing the Connected Health Symposium in Boston this October 25-26.  Check out the agenda here.  Elliott Fisher, Professor at The Dartmouth Institute and one of the architects of the concept of “accountable care organizations,” will be discussing why the principles underlying accountable care should help to address the problems confronting US health care.

 

Call for Abstracts: ACA Book

We’ll occasionally be posting event announcements here, as well as calls for papers, etc. that are likely to be of interest to our readership.  Speaking of which, one such announcement came in today (from Fritz Allhoff in the Philosophy Department at Western Michigan University):

A few months ago, we put out a call for a special issue of Public Affair Quarterly focusing on the Affordable Care Act decision.  The response was overwhelming, and we received far more submissions than we could accommodate in a single journal issue.  We’re now expanding the project to include–in addition to the special issue of the journal–an edited volume.  If anyone is interested in participating, please submit a 500-750 word abstract to Fritz Allhoff (fallhoff@umich.edu) directly. The coverage will still be the same as the earlier call, available here: https://www.wmich.edu/medicalhumanities/files/ACA_CfA.pdf

 

When Common Ground Becomes a Healthcare Battleground

By Cassie Chambers

The addition of Paul Ryan to the Republican presidential ticket has brought the healthcare proposals of both parties to the forefront. To listen to the Sunday morning talk shows, you’d think the platforms were definitively and irreconcilably split on every health-related issue. Examining healthcare proposals from both sides, however, shows that they have more in common than you might realize.  Yet we seem to have reached a point where this common ground isn’t something to celebrate, but rather a reality to retreat from as quickly and decisively as possible.

Let’s start by rewinding a few years.

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